Milei contra Milei: Ocupar un vacío no es representar

Milei llegó a la Presidencia porque logró convertir la crisis de representación en una fuente de legitimidad electoral. Ahora su gobierno enfrenta el problema inverso: rechazar un estado de cosas del que ya es actor central dificulta sostener el vínculo con la ciudadanía.

Javier Milei ocupó un vacío de representación. Hoy, ese espacio amenaza con volver a vaciarse  porque la Argentina está entrando en recesión representativa: distancia entre partidos y electores, descenso del interés por la política y un malestar que nadie consigue capitalizar. El Ni Ni político avanza raudo. El 42% no se identifica con ningún partido (el valor más alto desde 2023) sin distinguir por género, edad o nivel educativo. El 63% declara estar poco o nada interesado por la política (18 puntos más que en 2025; Pulsar.UBA, agosto de 2026). Y si hace apenas dos años una mayoría veía el futuro con esperanza, ahora lo ve con pesimismo y atribuye responsabilidad al gobierno. Según una encuesta de julio de 2026 de Atlas Intel y Bloomberg el 62% desaprueba a Milei  y el 70% evalúa de forma negativa la situación económica del país. La confianza en los partidos y el congreso es bajísima (ronda el 10% según distintas encuestas).

El temor estaba latente en los círculos de la grieta reconfigurada en el clásico peronismo (atrapatodo) – antiperonismo (ahora encarnado en La Libertad Avanza, lo que queda del Pro y sectores del radicalismo). Un estudio de Federico Aurelio le puso números: un 55% podría votar una alternativa ni kirchnerista ni mileísta. Cuando se pidió a los encuestados elegir un espacio, el oficialismo quedó primero (con un notable 30%), el peronismo segundo (27%) y un nada desdeñable 23% se decantó por una hipotética tercera opción. Aunque tercera opción no significa outsiders, el olfato político de muchos lo ve venir: el vacío que Milei ocupó, pero no consigue llenar, podría ofrecer una oportunidad a otro outsider.

¿Qué es “representar”?

En democracia, las elecciones autorizan a ocupar el poder, pero “ganar una elección” y “representar” no son sinónimos. Representar implica un vínculo simbólico entre gobernantes y gobernados que es necesariamente bidireccional: quien gobierna puede apoyarse en el prestigio, el carisma, la autoridad, la proximidad o el conocimiento, pero necesita además establecer una relación con la ciudadanía.

Como mostramos en un capítulo de De Rosas a Milei. Una historia de la democracia directa en Argentina, no existe una única manera de representar. Alfonsín condujo la transición a la democracia apelando al diálogo y generando procesos emblemáticos de conversación pública (representación dialógica, participativa); Menem reformó el estado apoyándose en la intermediación de organizaciones, en especial los sindicatos (representación corporativo-asociativa); Macri apeló al saber experto y la gestión (representación tecnocrática, centrada en la estrategia de comunicación); el kirchnerismo se basó en la identificación entre líder y pueblo (representación populista, aunque mantuvo y amplió la articulación corporativo-asociativa). Milei toma elementos de estos modelos pero rompe con algo central: no busca reconstruir las mediaciones que están en crisis ni construye nuevos lazos. No ejerce su propia función de liderazgo y concentra su comunicación en el ataque personal a los adversarios con particular dedicación al periodismo y en su aparición en espectáculos dirigidos a sus más fieles seguidores. Podría no ser suficiente.

El estado de la economía influye sobre el ánimo público y el presidente lo sabe. No es casual que en estos días haya reconocido que las cosas no van bien. En el discurso por el 176º aniversario de la muerte de San Martín dijo:  “los intentos de los tiranos de turno de sofocar la llama de la libertad siempre se apoyan en el descontento y la pobreza para romper con el orden” (por eso) “debemos dar la batalla cultural para explicar, una y otra vez, cómo esta prosperidad está basada y depende de los valores que nos hicieron grandes”. Podría ser tarde.

Los límites de la representación negativa de Milei

La legitimidad de Milei no se apoya en un partido arraigado ni en un proyecto programático tradicional sino en una performance que convirtió el rechazo al sistema político en fuerza organizativa y electoral: el choque, la agresividad discursiva, la ruptura de códigos institucionales y el uso intensivo de redes y medios. Sin embargo, la representación negativa alcanza para ganar una elección pero no para gobernar porque cuando el outsider deja de estar afuera y pasa a ser el gobierno, la pregunta cambia: ya no se trata de contra quién representa, sino de a quién, cómo y para qué. Ahí aparece la paradoja de Milei: llegó al poder desde fuera, capitalizando la desafección, pero no parece haber transformado esa negatividad en un vínculo capaz de sostenerse desde dentro.

Publicado en la edición 234 de El Estadista

¿Por qué fracasa Argentina?

En la obra Por qué fracasan los países (Deusto 2014) Daron Acemoglu y James A. Robinson dividen a los países según sus instituciones políticas y económicas sean inclusivas o extractivas.

En los primeros, se respeta el pluralismo y el estado de derecho. En los últimos, una élite concentra la riqueza económica y para mantenerla se resiste a cualquier apertura o innovación que limite su poder. En aquellos que desarrollan instituciones inclusivas se observa prosperidad. Donde predominan las instituciones extractivas se evidencia el fracaso, en forma de atraso y pobreza.

Acemoglu y Robinson explican con detalles los efectos nefastos del imperialismo del siglo XIX en África como también de la colonización española en América Latina. Lo terrible, dicen, es que los procesos de independencia no condujeron a generar un cambio en estas dinámicas sino que, en general, las elites locales se convirtieron en los nuevos actores extractivos que reemplazaron a las previos.

¿Cómo se sale del círculo vicioso? Aquí la clave es tan sencilla como difícil de obtener: en coyunturas críticas el pluralismo sienta las bases para un círculo virtuoso en que la apertura de mercados genera incentivos a la innovación y la llegada de nuevos actores que reclaman por la ampliación de derechos.

El lema de la independencia de las colonias del norte de América, ‘no taxation without representation’ (no hay impuestos sin derechos políticos) lo ilustra a la perfección.

¿Por qué fracasa Argentina? Los autores dedican algunos párrafos al país mostrando la persistencia de instituciones extractivas que se mantienen a pesar del cambio de las élites. Se reemplazan actores y objetivos, pero no cambian los procedimientos. Esto no va de derechas o izquierdas sino de un ejercicio del poder orientado al propio beneficio o del grupo al que se representa.

El argumento es seductor. También demasiado simplista. Mucho se ha escrito en Argentina sobre el “empate hegemónico” que condujo al péndulo cívico militar, la sucesión de golpes militares apoyados por civiles. En 1983 se abrió una coyuntura crítica que permitió restablecer la democracia y desde entonces una Argentina democrática se ubica a medio camino entre la inclusión y la extracción.

Como sea, la tensión entre un sector agroganadero muy eficiente y competitivo a nivel internacional y un sector industrial menos competitivo y con menor capacidad financiera ha marcado la puja redistributiva, mientras alrededor del empleo industrial se organizaron sindicatos fuertes que movilizaron las demandas por derechos en el siglo XX.

Dos modelos de país siguen en disputa. Ninguno es viable para resolver los desafíos actuales. El primero, que podríamos definir como de “Estado subsidiador”, propone un sector público asistencial sin alterar la estructura productiva. No es sostenible porque el bajo crecimiento limita la disponibilidad de recursos y la inflación penaliza a los sectores más vulnerables; ha encontrado su propio límite, agravado porque el empleo formal no ha crecido y si lo ha hecho el informal.

El otro modelo, que podríamos llamar de “Estado mínimo”, combina a grupos libertarios, la derecha radicalizada y algunos sectores empresariales que identifican al problema con la intervención pública. Pero en la práctica, si el primer modelo desarrolla el clientelismo en las bases, el segundo establece sus relaciones clientelares con el gran capital (‘capitalismo de amigos’). Los dos se han alternado de forma ineficiente, no resuelven ni los problemas económicos ni los sociales.

Aún en su simplicidad, el argumento central de Acemoglu y Robinson permite captar una dimensión del fracaso argentino: la clave de la prosperidad radica en establecer un circulo virtuoso en que las reformas económicas puedan ser negociadas en alguna medida con los actores involucrados y no pongan en riesgo la gobernabilidad.

Sería un error hacerlo a través de mecanismos autoritarios o no pluralistas. La unilateralidad impide mejorar políticas y conseguir adhesiones. A la vez (como ya ha pasado en las últimas dos décadas) vuelve insostenibles las reformas en el largo plazo,. Nada funcionará si no se atiende conjuntamente a la necesidad de introducir reformas y sostener la gobernabilidad. Para esto es indispensable restaurar el contrato social.

Versión levemente modificada de la publicada en Clarín en enero de 2024 (link)

Va de libros: ¿Por qué fracasan los países?

Los países prósperos ofrecen más calidad de vida en términos de acceso a bienes y servicios (educación, salud, transporte) y también mejores condiciones para el ejercicio de los derechos políticos (libertad de expresión, pluralismo, acceso a la información). Aunque las instituciones económicas y las políticas no son lo mismo, bienestar y libertades suelen ir de la mano. ¿Por qué algunos países consiguen la prosperidad mientras otros parecen condenados al fracaso? En Por qué fracasan los países (Editorial Deusto 2014) el economista Daron Acemoglu y el politólogo y también economista James Robinson proponen una hipótesis central: la prosperidad se observa donde se desarrollan instituciones inclusivas; el fracaso, en forma de atraso y pobreza, se produce donde predominan las instituciones extractivas.

¿Qué diferencia a unas de otras? Las instituciones inclusivas se basan en el pluralismo y el estado de derecho; las extractivas son aquellas en que una élite puja por concentrar la riqueza económica y para mantenerse en el poder rechaza o resiste cualquier apertura política o innovación. La alternancia en el poder no garantiza el cambio porque a menudo unas élites extractivas son reemplazadas por otras elites igualmente extractivas, como ha pasado en muchos países africanos y latinoamericanos desde la independencia. La pregunta del millón, claro, refiere a cómo superar estas condiciones.

El argumento es sencillo. El desarrollo requiere como una de sus condiciones básicas un grado de centralización política. El Estado debe ser el titular de la coacción legítima. La fuerza, regulada por la ley, sólo debe ser ejercida por el Estado, en todo el territorio, y debe disponer de lo que puede definirse como capacidades estatales. O sea, para tomar decisiones e implementarlas el Estado debe tener poder (competencias y ser respetado) y recursos humanos y económicos. Esta es casi una precondición que no necesariamente se observa junto con las instituciones inclusivas, ya que muchos países caracterizados por sus instituciones extractivas muestran un grado avanzado de centralización (China, a modo de ejemplo). La condición que realmente hará la diferencia es la que refiere al pluralismo.

En países como Inglaterra, Estados Unidos y Australia (estos últimos son territorios que consiguieron la independencia del Imperio Británico) cierta apertura de los mercados fue generando el desarrollo de intereses plurales y diversos que fueron demandando a su vez mayores derechos políticos. Ahí está la clave, movilización por la ampliación de derechos que, si tiene éxito, conducirá a un círculo virtuoso en que el estado de derecho generará un escenario para un intercambio que ponga límites al poder.

Este cambio también se dio, por citar otro ejemplo, en Francia. Me permito un paréntesis para conectar con ciertas expectativas de época, de cambios radicales, realizados de un plumazo, “borrón y cuenta nueva”. Para la historia con mayúscula, la que se registra en los libros escolares, la Revolución Francesa condujo a una enorme transformación de los sistemas económicos y políticos en el país, Europa y el mundo. También condujo a guerras, muerte e inestabilidad durante muchos años. La toma de la Bastilla, que dio el tiro de salida a la Revolución en 1789, en París, derivó en una puja en la que se cortaron cabezas (literal, el invento más exportado de la Revolución fue la guillotina) para hacerse con el poder. Napoleón Bonaparte se autoconsagró emperador en 1804, mientras atrás quedaban las cabezas de María Antonieta y Luis XVI, pero también de muchos revolucionarios, como entre otros Robespierre y Danton. La contrarrevolución reinstaló la monarquía unos años más tarde y así, de asesinatos de palacio y de guerra en guerra hasta que se reinstaló la Segunda República con Luis Napoleón (sobrino de Bonaparte)… que también cayó bajo la tentación de convertirse en dictador y se convirtió en el último monarca francés. Un siglo más tarde los ideales de 1789 comenzarían a tomar forma. El legado universal es notable, quienes vivieron la época lo padecieron intensamente. No hay cambio real sin pluralismo e inclusión.

El argumento central de Por qué fracasan los países es útil para reflexionar a nivel global, pero quizás su mayor mérito es la cantidad de datos y casos que revisa, ya que su aporte teórico por demasiado generalista se vuelve superficial. Es notable que no haya ninguna mención al rol de las potencias mundiales en el siglo XX frenando el desarrollo de instituciones inclusivas, en especial Estados Unidos, que promovió golpes de estado en países en que las elecciones estaban conduciendo a la apertura, como en Guatemala (país al que el libro dedica varias páginas pero sólo y exclusivamente en clave doméstica). Tampoco se considera la interacción entre países a nivel global, lo que sorprende si toca asumir que la industrialización y el desarrollo de las potencias occidentales se dio a base de la expansión imperialista y la esclavitud (cosa que sí se menciona pero, otra vez, como asunto doméstico). Llama la atención que se dedique un apartado final a sostener que la ayuda externa, la ayuda para el desarrollo, no sirve para nada. También es notable que no se hagan apenas alusiones al rol que el Estado tiene en promover o inhibir el desarrollo. Con sus lagunas y sus virtudes, sin duda es una obra de referencia, para leer y comentar.

Esta reseña fue publicada en el diario El Argentino en enero de 2024.

The Great Blindness

What was the difference between the Cuban participatory process of 2018 and the great French national debate of 2019?

The question is deliberately provocative; there are undoubtedly many differences. The first, and fundamental one: France is a democratic country and Cuba is not. But we should be careful not to retreat too comfortably behind that dividing line: there are aspects in which the Cuban participatory process might come out better. For example, there was a referendum on the island; controlled, yes, but it included a decision-making mechanism in the hands of the public which, according to some analysts, allowed for the ‘direct’ expression of a nascent discontent.

Furthermore, participation in Cuba was far more widespread: seven million Cubans (64 per cent of the population) took part in over 100,000 meetings, compared with the half a million who are thought to have participated in France (not even 1 per cent) in just over 10,000 local meetings, and the one and a half million who submitted their contributions online. Although Macron has portrayed it as a success, research by the Centre for the Study of Political Life at Sciences Po, based on a sample of 240 debates and 2,500 questionnaires, suggests that those under 50 barely took part and that the group was far from being socio-demographically representative of France, comprising a majority of men with medium to high levels of education.

Returning to the comparison, beyond issues that are in any case debatable, what is worrying (because France is a democratic country and Cuba is not) is what they have in common: the deliberation was more or less widespread, inclusive and open (in France there were four topics and guiding questionnaires; in Cuba, deliberations centred on the draft constitution), but it is not entirely clear how or when ‘someone’ will state what the people wanted. In France, unlike in Cuba, a group of independent experts was tasked with drawing up the conclusions, but how can democratically legitimate conclusions be reached when there are differing viewpoints and the participants are neither representative nor have democratic authorisation to decide? The greatest limitation lies in the mechanism itself.

Joan Font had anticipated that in many participatory processes there is a great deal of noise and very little substance when he analysed Emmanuel Macron’s first proposal to promote citizens’ conventions to discuss the future of Europe. The innovations were significant: that the impetus came from a head of state and that it concerned a much broader territory. However, the design of the process, as is now the case with The Great National Debate, did not seem to have taken on board the wealth of previous experience, particularly at local level. Font said: “What have we learnt from all this? Firstly, that these processes are capable of generating debates of the highest quality amongst citizens, bringing together a broad and diverse range of people and giving rise to constructive and thought-provoking proposals. (……) On the contrary, the greatest difficulties have centred on the thematic framework adopted by the group of participants and on how to ensure that the outcomes of these forums can actually be incorporated into the real-world formulation of policies.”

There have been so many such initiatives over recent decades that it is doubtful whether this is simply a challenge that is difficult to overcome. Rather, there appears to be indifference or blindness on the part of the authorities towards the problem, because participation is viewed as a quick fix to placate public sentiment. Pure ‘performance’.

In a study on deliberation in constitutional drafting or reform processes published in the Revista Española de Ciencia Política, we found that a fair process should meet certain basic conditions regarding participation and the methods for presenting conclusions.

With regard to the mechanism for participation: a) it must provide comprehensive information; b) it must allow sufficient time for deliberation; c) it must include all stakeholders; and d) it must accommodate a plurality of voices.

And with regard to the method for aggregating preferences or processing the content generated: a) it must exist; b) it must be communicated in advance; c) it must establish a link with the decision-making process; and d) it must be independent of government control.

Even whilst acknowledging that in some participatory processes – such as open discussions on the city model, to give one example – less regulated participation could still have positive effects, it can be argued that at ‘high-stakes’ moments, it is appropriate to strengthen trust in institutions through rules that can be shared, understood and endorsed. This is the case with constitutional deliberation and would also be the case with the French ‘Great Debate’.

In democratic contexts, the conditions relating to participatory mechanisms are usually met, but there are very few cases in which the methods for processing the results are discussed, planned and anticipated. Randomly selected assemblies, such as those held in Ireland in 2016, amongst others, have successfully resolved the problem of both organising a high-quality debate and combining it with a decision-making process that enjoys democratic legitimacy, by including a referendum. In other instances, such as the drafting of the Brazilian Constitution in 1988, deliberative meetings were held and a mechanism was put in place to enable citizens, through the collection of signatures, to submit proposals for the Constituent Assembly to consider (though not necessarily to approve).

The Irish mechanism is more powerful than the Brazilian one, because the former involves direct decision-making whilst the latter does not; the former allows for decisions to be made, whilst the latter serves to open up the agenda, which was previously dominated by legislators. As with these, there are other possible models that could be discussed. What does not require much debate is that the lack of a well-known and publicised mechanism for processing content or aggregating preferences turns any major debate into either hot air, a propaganda tool for the elites or, in the most benevolent scenario, an amplified (and rather costly) opinion poll.

The great French national debate has come to an end. In an article, Marc Bassets pointed out that the challenge now is to transform the discussion into tangible policies. But even though all the information is available online and Macron has celebrated it, the anger of much of the population remains. It is all too evident – even in the celebratory nature of the presentation of the results – that the central objective was not to find out what the public wanted (which surely encompasses many very different things; hence the importance of strengthening democratically validated decision-making mechanisms), but rather to defuse the protest.

On the very day the debate ended, Bassets’ article suggested that the ‘yellow vests’ were running out of steam, but the weekend painted a different picture, one of burnt-out bins, looting and clashes between extremists and the police. Thus, whilst the representatives do not see it – or do not want to see it – the spiral of disillusionment is fuelling undesirable outcomes: the rhetoric of the far right and/or violent protest.

Published in Agenda Pública on 28 March 2019.

La gran ceguera

¿Qué diferencia hubo entre el proceso participativo cubano de 2018 y el gran debate nacional francés de 2019?
La pregunta es una provocación; sin duda, hay muchas diferencias. La primera, fundamental: Francia es un país democrático y Cuba no. Pero cuidado con quedarse en la zona de confort que da esa línea divisoria: hay aspectos en los que el proceso participativo cubano podría salir mejor parado. Por ejemplo, en la isla hubo un referéndum; controlado, sí, pero se incluía un mecanismo de decisión en manos de la ciudadanía que ha permitido, según algunos analistas, la expresión ‘directa’ de un incipiente malestar.

Además, la participación en Cuba fue mucho más masiva: siete millones de cubanos (64% de la población) en más de 100.000 encuentros, frente al medio millón que habría participado en Francia (ni el 1%) en los poco más de 10.000 encuentros locales, y el millón y medio que registró sus contribuciones en Internet. Aunque Macron lo ha vendido como un éxito, una investigación del Centro de Estudios de la Vida Política de Sciences Po, basada en una muestra de 240 debates y 2.500 cuestionarios, sugiere que los menores de 50 años apenas habrían participado y que el grupo distaría mucho de representar socio-demográficamente a Francia, con mayoría de hombres y niveles educativos medios y elevados.

Volviendo a la comparación, más allá de cuestiones de todos modos discutibles, lo que resulta preocupante (porque Francia es un país democrático y Cuba no) es lo que comparten: la deliberación fue más o menos masiva, inclusiva y abierta (en Francia hubo cuatro temas y cuestionarios-guía; en Cuba se deliberó sobre el proyecto constitucional), pero no se sabe muy bien cómo ni cuándo ‘alguien’ dirá qué quería la gente. En Francia, a diferencia de Cuba, un grupo de expertos independientes quedó a cargo de elaborar las conclusiones, pero ¿cómo se pueden extraer conclusiones legitimadas democráticamente cuando hay distintas posturas y la asistencia no es representativa ni tiene autorización democrática para decidir? La limitación mayor está en el mecanismo.

Que en muchos procesos participativos hay mucho ruido y apenas algunas nueces lo había anticipado Joan Font cuando analizaba la primera propuesta de Emmanuel Macron de promover convenciones ciudadanas para discutir sobre el futuro de Europa. Las novedades no eran menores: que el estímulo viniera de un jefe de Estado y que se refiriera a un territorio mucho más amplio. Sin embargo, el diseño del proceso, como ahora en El gran debate nacional, no parecía haber tomado nota de todo el caudal de experiencias previas generadas, sobre todo en el ámbito local. Decía Font: “¿Qué hemos aprendido de todo ello? En primer lugar, que estos procesos son capaces de generar debates de enorme calidad entre la ciudadanía, congregando a un abanico amplio y diverso de personas dando lugar a propuestas constructivas y sugerentes. (……) Por el contrario, las mayores dificultades han tenido que ver con el marco temático que el grupo de participantes asume y con cómo asegurar que los resultados de estos espacios puedan llegar a incorporarse a la elaboración real de políticas”.

Las experiencias promovidas en las últimas décadas son tantas que cabe dudar de que simplemente se trate de un reto difícil de superar. Más bien parece haber indiferencia o ceguera de las autoridades frente al problema, porque se concibe la participación como una respuesta rápida para acallar los ánimos. Pura ‘performance’.

En una investigación sobre deliberación en procesos de elaboración o reforma constitucional publicada en la Revista Española de Ciencia Política, encontramos que una que fuera justa debiera cumplir con ciertas condiciones básicas en la participación y en las fórmulas para presentar conclusiones.

En relación al mecanismo de participación: a) ofrecer información completa; b) permitir el tiempo necesario para deliberar; c) incluir a todos los actores, y d) acoger una pluralidad de voces.

Y en relación al método de agregación de preferencias o procesamiento de los contenidos generados: a) debe existir; b) ser comunicado previamente; c) establecer un vínculo con el proceso de toma de decisiones, y d) ser independiente del control gubernamental.

Aun considerando que en algunos procesos participativos – discusiones abiertas sobre el modelo de ciudad, por dar un ejemplo– una participación menos regulada igualmente podría tener efectos positivos, puede sostenerse que en momentos de ‘alto voltaje’ cabe fortalecer la confianza en las instituciones con reglas susceptibles de ser compartidas, conocidas y avaladas. Éste es el caso de la deliberación constituyente y también sería el caso del gran debate francés.

En contextos democráticos suelen cumplirse las condiciones referidas al mecanismo participativo, pero son contados los casos en que los métodos de procesamiento se discuten, planifican y prevén. Las asambleas sorteadas, como las que han tenido lugar, entre otros, en Irlanda en 2016, han resuelto muy bien el problema tanto de organizar un debate de calidad como de combinarlo con un proceso de toma de decisiones que cuente con legitimidad democrática, al incluir un referéndum. En otras experiencias, como en la elaboración de la Constitución de Brasil en 1988, hubo encuentros de deliberación y se habilitó un mecanismo para que la ciudadanía, mediante recolección de firmas, pudiese presentar propuestas que la Constituyente debía tratar (no necesariamente aprobar).

El mecanismo irlandés es más potente que el brasileño, porque el primero incluye toma directa de decisiones y el segundo no; el primero permite decidir, el segundo abrir la agenda, antes dominada por los legisladores. Como éstos, hay otros modelos posibles y que podrían discutirse. Lo que no amerita mucha discusión es que la falta de un mecanismo de procesamiento de contenidos o agregación de preferencias conocido y comunicado convierte a cualquier gran debate alternativamente en pura espuma, un instrumento de propaganda para las élites o, en el escenario más benévolo, una encuesta amplificada (y bastante costosa).

El gran debate nacional francés terminó. En un artículo, Marc Bassets señalaba que el reto era ahora transformar la discusión en políticas tangibles. Pero aunque toda la información esté colgada en la web y Macron lo haya celebrado, el enojo del grueso de la población sigue ahí. Es demasiado evidente, incluso en el carácter celebratorio de la presentación de resultados, que el objetivo central no era saber qué quería la ciudadanía (que seguramente quiere muchas cosas y muy diferentes; de ahí la importancia de fortalecer mecanismos validados democráticamente para tomar decisiones), sino desactivar la protesta.

El mismo día del final del debate, la nota de Bassets sugería que los chalecos amarillos estaban perdiendo fuelle, pero el fin de semana mostró otra imagen, de contenedores quemados, saqueos y enfrentamientos entre extremistas y policías. Así, mientras los representantes no lo ven o no lo quieren ver, la espiral del desencanto alimenta salidas indeseables: el discurso de la ultraderecha y/o la protesta violenta.

Publicado en Agenda Pública el 28 de marzo de 2019.

Telling the story of direct democracy in Argentina

Readers who have picked up this book have probably already challenged one common assumption: that mechanisms of direct democracy are largely irrelevant in Argentina1. Here we will show that, on the contrary, throughout the 20th century these instruments were incorporated at an early stage into provincial legislation. Their design, use and disuse reveal institutional tensions that allow us to understand, from an unexplored perspective, how power and legitimacy are constructed in the country. This perspective also helps to explain why a form of representation that is increasingly disconnected from citizen’s formal participation faces growing difficulties in sustaining itself.

Direct democracy is desired by some and feared by others. In the West, the debate on referendums, recall votes, initiatives and popular consultations has been situated between the poles that separate the idealisation of power ‘of the people’ from the authoritarian dystopia. On the one hand, this idealisation stems from the Rousseauian myth of a general will formed by free and equal individuals[1] —a founding sovereignty that has never existed in modern societies. Its most frequently cited example comes from classical Athens (450–322 BC), which experimented with forms of direct participation, albeit with extensive exclusions and combined with forms of representation.[2] On the other hand, authoritarian dystopia arises from the instrumentalisation of the will of the people by leaders such as Napoleon I, Napoleon III or Adolf Hitler, who organised referendums to concentrate even more power in their own hands.

In contemporary political systems, a network of institutions puts representative democracy into practice through the participation of the electorate. This participation may be restricted or expanded; in other words, it may be limited to the election of representatives or grant citizens the ability to intervene in debate or decision-making. MDDs enable citizens to express their views through voting on matters of political significance —constitutional amendments and legislation— as well as on the continuity in office of elected authoritites (recall). In these pages, we will map the ideological, regulatory and political presence of these instruments within the Argentine debate and institutional framework.

The constitutional debates in the United States of America in 1787 – a source of inspiration for Argentina – addressed the referendum, the popular initiative and the recall of elected officials, but rejected them. By contrast, they were incorporated into the French Constitution of 1793, although this never came into force, having been suspended by the National Convention in the context of the Revolutionary War. Without a revolution and with greater success in their subsequent development, these mechanisms were introduced in Switzerland with the Constitution of 1848, and have had a strong presence ever since at all levels of government: local, cantonal and federal.

What happened in Latin America? During the 19th century, plebiscitary practices were in place, which began to diversify in the 20th century. However, there were hardly any studies on the subject.[3] Things began to change with the third wave of democratisation, from the mid-1970s onwards. Research into direct democratic mechanisms gained prominence as they were incorporated into the constitutions of all countries in the region.[4] Furthermore, some referendums held since the late 20th century attracted attention due to their transformative potential, whether positive or negative. Populist leaders have resorted to referendums to circumvent constitutional obstacles (to cite one example, Rafael Correa in Ecuador in 2007), and deep-seated political and social crises (Peru 2018, Chile 2020) have been attempted to be resolved through reforms promoted by this means.

More than one Latin American dictatorship called for referendums: Bolivia in 1931, Chile in 1978 and 1980, amongst others. Democratic governments, too, have resorted to referendums in an attempt to prevent coups d’état, as happened in Chile in 1925 and in Brazil in 1963. Even major transitional agreements were legitimised through referendums in Venezuela and Colombia in 1957, and in Ecuador in 1978.[5] It was not only in situations of crisis and transition, or under authoritarian or populist leaderships, even with strong political parties MDDs were held, as demonstrated by the case of Uruguay, the regional leader in the number of plebiscites (as they are known locally) held from the early 20th century to the present day.[6]

The Argentine case is often viewed in isolation from these dynamics. Consequently, it has not received much attention from local scholars, who consider it irrelevant. This interpretation is mistaken.

A case study

In history books, the first recorded instance of a mechanism of direct democracy in Argentina refers to the plebiscite of 13 April 1835, through which the governor of Buenos Aires, Juan Manuel de Rosas, assumed ‘the sum of public power’.[7] The Rosismo left an indelible mark on the vision of democracy and the republic held by the intellectuals of its time and, for years, excluded direct democracy from the national debate. A century and a half later, President Raúl Alfonsín (Radical Civic Union, UCR, 1983–1989) initiated the Beagle Islands plebiscite. A decade later, Carlos Saúl Menem (Justicialist Party, PJ, 1989–1999) attempted to hold a referendum to secure his re-election. He suspended it once he secured the support of the main opposition party, the UCR, for constitutional reform. This paved the way for the legislative changes of 1994. Thirty years later, in January 2024, lacking a majority in Congress that would allow him to push through a package of reforms, Javier Milei said he would put it to a public vote. The announcement never went beyond political rhetoric.

By contrast, the provincial landscape is far more diverse and prolific, both in terms of regulation and practice. Some referendums foreshadowed regional patterns, such as the one called by Néstor Kirchner in 1998 during his term as governor of Santa Cruz to enable his indefinite re-election. Although the mechanism was not provided for by law, it was put to a vote with the backing of the judiciary.

In 2005, in the City of Buenos Aires, Mayor Aníbal Ibarra promoted a recall referendum with which he sought to re-legitimise his position, although it never came to a vote.[8] Also noteworthy are the referendums and initiatives on environmental issues, which are numerous across the country. There have even been unusual cases, such as the one launched on 25 April 1999 by Eduardo Duhalde, the Peronist governor of the province of Buenos Aires, who called a non-binding referendum in his district to thwart President Menem’s attempt at re-election. This referendum, deemed unconstitutional because it did not relate to a ‘matter of special importance to the province’ (as stipulated in Article 67 of the provincial Constitution), but rather to an issue of national scope, was cancelled by its initiator (on two occasions). Many more examples will be discussed throughout the book.

What factors explain the introduction of mechanisms for direct democracy into legislation? Is it ideology or the struggle for power? Are these political tools or smokescreens? In what contexts are attempts made to implement them, and what explains their success or failure? What do they reveal about the Argentine political arena? Could they gain greater influence in a political system undergoing transformation?

Our hypothesis is that, at the national level, citizen participation has become caught in the tension between an elitist model (the legacy of the ‘conservative order’, analysed by Natalio Botana) and forms of populist or corporatist representation that do not grant citizens the capacity for agency. In the provinces, the picture is varied, with patterns of citizen mobilisation that are often thwarted and others—more prevalent—where governors exploit such mobilisation for their own ends.

Our analysis focuses on the national and sub-national levels, from the first introduction of such measures in Corrientes (1913) to the recent constitutional reform in Santa Fe (2025). To this end, we have reviewed secondary sources, analysed legislation and compiled an original database on provincial initiatives, enabling us to place the Argentine case in dialogue with regional and global experiences.

This book is intended not only for specialists but for anyone interested in the challenges facing Argentine democracy; we have therefore endeavoured to avoid an overly academic style and not to overload the text with legal references and data. At the end, in an appendix, tables listing mechanisms and voting results are included for those wishing to explore the subject in greater depth.

Roadmap

The book is organised into this introduction, seven chapters and a conclusion. The first chapter examines why and under what conditions political actors might have incentives to alter the balance of power. MDDs have been identified as a potential solution to remedy the shortcomings of contemporary democracies. However, their introduction or reform involves various political actors with often conflicting incentives, whilst also incorporating the public as an actor with veto power. Thus, a mandatory referendum to ratify constitutional reforms may result in the decision taken by the authorities being rejected by the popular vote (as happened to Hugo Chávez in 2007). This section provides a review of the current state of research on the subject.

“The Impossible Veto: A Historical Perspective”, the second chapter, focuses on the key ideas that shaped the role attributed to citizens in the country. Alberdi’s mistrust of popular participation reflects a conservative republican tradition, in which institutional stability (controlled by insiders) has taken precedence over inclusion. Despite their distinctive characteristics, neither the populist movements of Hipólito Yrigoyen nor those of Juan Domingo Perón altered these dynamics; much less so did the military governments. From this examination of the role attributed to institutional citizen participation across different historical periods emerges one of the central hypotheses of this book: elitism without popular support versus popular support controlled from above; two models that appear to have run their course since 2023.

The third chapter, ‘Representation and Participation in Argentina (1983–2025)’, explores the relationship between these two terms in greater depth. A number of ideal models are defined—dialogical, corporative-associative, technocratic and populist representation—to analyse the leadership styles of Presidents Raúl Alfonsín, Carlos Menem, Néstor Kirchner, Cristina Fernández, Mauricio Macri and Javier Milei. Each of these styles is linked to a form of citizen participation (more or less active and autonomous). With the exception of Alfonsín’s attempt, we find that models of representation which limit citizen participation or subordinate it to the political agenda of the day have predominated.

Whilst at national level no government – whether dictatorial or democratic, republican or populist – accorded greater significance to direct democratic mechanisms (MDD), the sub-national landscape presents a different picture: 18 provinces currently regulate mandatory referendums; 22, popular consultations; and 3, popular initiatives (plus a further 3 that do so only for their municipalities). The fourth chapter, ‘The myth of rarity: direct democracy in the provinces (1913–2025)’, examines the historical and current constitutions that have regulated MDDs and classifies the established mechanisms.

The findings contradict some common assumptions, such as the notion that the regulation of these mechanisms is attributed to the left or to progressivism. Thus, it was not the rising Radical Party but the conservative parties that promoted direct democracy in the first provinces (Corrientes, Mendoza). However, the Radicals soon joined in, with constitutions that were short-lived due to the federal intervention of 1935 ordered by President Agustín Justo (Santa Fe, Entre Ríos). Nor was it Peronism, but rather the post-coup reaction of 1955, that introduced direct democracy mechanisms when it revised the constitutions of the new provinces (Chaco, Neuquén and Misiones).

‘Who can stop the governor? The uses of direct democracy in the provinces’, the fifth chapter, compiles and analyses formal attempts to trigger referendums. Between 1987 and 2025, at least 16 Argentine provinces triggered or initiated the procedure for activating direct democracy mechanisms on 23 occasions, to which must be added municipal-level exercises in at least six provinces. The most commonly used instruments in the former case were popular consultations (19), and the most frequent objective was re-election, followed by referendums (4). None were citizen-initiated. Fourteen were put to a vote (8 approved, 6 rejected) and nine were suspended or dismissed. The overall picture emerging from these practices is one of blocked potential for citizen counter-power. The flip side is the consolidation of power where the rule of law is weakest. In between, various practices reveal institutional designs aimed at protecting the status quo; a notable example is Mendoza.

Chapter Six, ‘The latent recall: from the ideal of citizen control to partisan use’, places the Argentine experience with this mechanism in dialogue with regional and global contexts. Currently, 15 provinces have incorporated the recall mechanism into their constitutions. In turn, we have identified 15 attempts to trigger a recall, 12 of which took place in the province of Córdoba. Within the framework of accountability theory, in these processes the political will of those in power (whether in favour or against) continues to play a fundamental role in the success or failure of the recall.

Chapter Seventh, ‘The agenda initiative: a story of yet another frustration?’, deals with a semi-direct mechanism. Although it is not included in our definition of MDD as it does not trigger a vote, we decided to consider it as it is the result of a debate on the incorporation of the popular initiative (which does trigger a vote). Indeed, among the institutions recommended by the Council for the Consolidation of Democracy in 1986 was the ‘popular initiative’, presented as an agenda initiative (since it only enabled the electorate to submit draft legislation to the legislature), but which added that, should the bill not be considered, a binding referendum would be called, thus becoming a hybrid mechanism.

In the 1994 reform, and in most of the provisions introduced at provincial level, the agenda initiative was ultimately reduced to a semi-direct mechanism: limited to the submission of draft legislation to the legislature, with no provision for a vote. In this way, the instrument lost all capacity for popular decision-making. Of Argentina’s 24 provinces, 21 mention it in their current constitutions, but an analysis of institutional designs and practices paints a picture steeped in pessimism. Certainly, a semi-direct mechanism, designed to open up dialogue between those in power and the governed whilst leaving the decision exclusively to the former, does not work: almost no initiative has been successful; but not only that, even the process of accessing information about them is complex, which highlights the almost purely decorative role they play in most constitutions.

In Argentina, direct democracy is not a story of mass plebiscites or referendums that change the country’s course overnight. However, it has played a more significant role than is commonly believed. This is precisely what we seek to demonstrate in the following pages, in which we also explore the role such mechanisms might play against a backdrop of political change and public disaffection.

From Menem’s threat in 1993 to the introduction of indefinite re-election in Santa Cruz in 1998, via the largely unsuccessful environmental consultations in municipalities in the south and north of the country, this is a convoluted narrative, made up of failed attempts, strategic moves, local innovations and various manoeuvres designed to prevent the public from having the final say. Indeed, MDDs have been the scene of power struggles, political creativity and, at times, sheer pretence.  

The concluding chapter, ‘Direct democracy as a broken mirror of representation’, brings the journey to a close by bringing together over a century of national and provincial history. This serves to show that, far from being neutral tools, these mechanisms reflect the ideological tensions inherent in Argentina’s elitist and tightly controlled institutional design. Understanding their history not only sheds light on the past: it helps us anticipate how they might be used in the future.


[1] Rousseau, J.J. (2014).

[2] All adult males over the age of eighteen took part in the popular assembly (Ekklesia), which decided on laws, war and peace. The members of the Council of 500 (Boulé) were chosen by lot from each of the 50 tribes and were responsible for drawing up the assembly’s agenda and supervising the magistrates. Members of the magistracies were also chosen by lot; however, the strategists, who held key military and diplomatic roles, were appointed by vote, and some, such as Pericles, secured re-election on several occasions (Sinclair, R. K., 1999).

[3] Lissidini, A. (2015).

[4] Ruth-Lovell, S. and Welp, Y. (2024).

[5] Welp, Y. and Ruth, S. (2017a).

[6] Lissidini, A. (2021).

[7] Ternavasio, M. (2021).

[8] Eberhardt, M. L. (2020).

  1. Welp, Yanina & Eberhardt, Laura. “Introduction: Telling the story of direct democracy in Argentina”. In De Rosas a Milei: Una historia política de la democracia  directa en Argentina [From Rosas to Milei: A Political History of Direct Democracy in Argentina] ( Buenos Aires: Prometeo 2026) ↩︎

Hubrispia: The Bias That Is Also Distorting Politics

The arrogance and irresponsibility with which some political actors make unfounded calculations deserve a word of their own in the dictionary. I propose one: hubrispia. It is a combination of arrogance and myopia that leads people to confuse perceived control with real control over the political board.

June 21 was Colombia’s hour. In a dizzying election, Abelardo de la Espriella — self-styled as “the tiger,” an admirer of Milei (the lion), with no political experience and without a structured party — defeated Iván Cepeda, from the Historic Pact coalition, who might have performed better had President Gustavo Petro not insisted on turning the election into a plebiscite on himself. In any case, the result was narrow and left a country divided territorially and emotionally. The consequences of this scenario are multiple. A similar pattern could be observed in Peru shortly before, and in many other places.

Affective polarization and growing discontent with politics are silently but profoundly changing who enters, who stays, and who leaves professional politics. It is not only a matter of styles or harsh discourse, of aggression, offenses, and lies (which is not a minor issue). Something less visible is also at stake: the very composition of those who decide to pursue a career in politics. In this new context, politics ceases to be a more or less regulated and predictable space and becomes an uncertain environment, with high exposure, low institutional protection, and growing personal costs. The result is adverse selection: those who remain or enter tend to be those who better tolerate conflict, permanent visibility, and extreme personalization, while other profiles self-exclude or leave.

This change is better understood by observing the ecosystem in which professional politics is practiced today. Political communication has shifted toward an attention economy where what matters is not so much the value of ideas as their ability to generate immediate impact. Social media, media fragmentation, and the logic of virality have intensified personalization and weakened parties as intermediaries. Competing politically implies competing for constant exposure, often at the expense of the minimum rules of civility and coexistence. Affective polarization acts as an amplifier: if moderation does not attract attention, confrontation becomes profitable.

Added to this is the transformation of party systems, which have lost filtering and protective capacity. Where parties once structured careers, selected profiles, and cushioned the costs of public exposure, weaker, more volatile, or directly personalistic structures now prevail (as occurred with de la Espriella in Colombia and earlier with Milei in Argentina, who entered politics without parties). This opens the door to outsiders and unconventional leaderships that tend to be hyper-personalist and make decisions in isolation.

If the prestige of doing politics is low, hostility high, and the boundary between public and private increasingly blurred, who will want to get involved? It is not surprising that many potential profiles decide not to enter or to leave before consolidating themselves. Politics becomes a harsh filter that not only selects capacities but also specific psychological and emotional dispositions.

The French case illustrates well the combination of phenomena described in this article. In the local elections of March 2026, more than two-thirds of municipalities presented a single candidate list, and in dozens there were no candidacies at all. The resignations of mayors and local authorities, many associated with episodes of symbolic violence, digital harassment, and personal exhaustion, reinforce this trend. Meanwhile, in large cities such as Paris, Marseille, or Lyon, where competition is more intense and mediatized, the opposite effect can be observed: greater polarization and a growing presence of more confrontational and visible profiles. France thus shows, at different territorial levels, the logic of adverse selection described here: politics empties out in some spaces and radicalizes in others, shaping an environment that favors the entry or permanence of profiles with greater tolerance for conflict and lower aversion to exposure, at the cost of increasing erosion of representative diversity.

Added to this dynamic is a less visible but equally relevant consequence: those who remain in politics tend to develop what I propose here to call hubrispia, a combination of arrogance and myopia. Arrogance, because constant exposure, the logic of personalized leadership, and the selective validation of political environments feed overconfidence in one’s own capacities and diagnoses. And myopia, because the accelerated rhythm of political competition, permanent communicational pressure, and short-term logic reduce the ability to perceive non-immediate effects, diffuse costs, or signs of institutional erosion.

Could the inexplicable permanence of Manuel Adorni as Chief of Cabinet be one of its most visible effects in Argentina? Adorni’s continuity, despite weeks of public exposure due to patrimonial inconsistencies, laid bare contradictions and inconsistencies that call into question the truthfulness of his statements and erode his political credibility. Despite widespread rejection, the President continues to support him.

Hubrispia is not an isolated individual trait but a systemic effect. It emerges when politics ceases to offer mechanisms of correction, reflection, and deceleration proper to democratic deliberation. When politics stops correcting those who practice it, it begins to deform them.

Spanish version HERE

Keiko: Fujimori’s Double Legacy

Keiko Fujimori, leader of Fuerza Popular, reaches the second round for the fourth time in the Peruvian presidential elections to be held on Sunday, June 7. In 2011 she lost to Ollanta Humala and in 2016 to Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. During that period, Alberto Fujimori’s daughter disputed the leadership of the party with her brother Kenji, whom she expelled in 2018. In her third attempt, in 2021, she was defeated by Pedro Castillo. She lost but remains free and still in the race, unlike the previous presidents. Humala, Kuczynski, Castillo, and also Alejandro Toledo are in prison. The interim presidents did not fare better either, since they are convicted (Martín Vizcarra) or being tried after being removed for corruption (Dina Boluarte, Manuel Merino). How much more evidence is needed to understand that the problem is the system?

Latin American electoral scenarios show three trends: polarization (two poles, as has just happened in Colombia and earlier in Chile, Brazil, and Uruguay), authoritarian concentration (with a candidate running alone, as happens in Nicaragua and El Salvador), and fragmentation (what is happening in Ecuador and Peru). Peru represents the most extreme case of political fragmentation in the region: weak presidents, short-lived parties, and a mortally fragmented and delegitimized congress. Fragmentation affects presidential competition and makes the formation of stable legislative majorities difficult while encouraging short-term opportunistic alliances. Backroom deals run rampant.

In the first round, on April 12, 35 candidacies competed for the presidency. Since 2001 — after Alberto Fujimori’s resignation via fax from Japan (by the way, he was also imprisoned) — no candidate has obtained the majority required to win in the first round. Polarization is also promoted by the system through the runoff and compulsory voting.

The arrival of “the Chinese man” to government

In the mid-1980s, foreign debt and the rise of the Shining Path guerrilla (Sendero Luminoso) plunged Peru into a deep political and economic crisis. By 1989, inflation exceeded 2700% and GDP fell close to 10% annually. Poverty affected half of the urban population and 73% of the rural population. Disillusionment with the functioning of democracy was widespread, especially among the poor and marginalized.

A few months before the 1990 presidential elections, Mario Vargas Llosa appeared to be the clear favorite. However, Fujimori, son of Japanese immigrants and without previous political experience, surged and defeated the Nobel Prize in Literature turned reference point for the unity of the right. To launch his candidacy, Fujimori created the party Cambio 90 – Nueva Mayoría, and ran a campaign based on rejection of the political class and traditional parties. Cambio 90 obtained its support from the most marginalized sectors of society: Indigenous people, mestizos, evangelicals, informal workers, and poor people both urban and rural. That government, which initially obtained strong international support, ended up leading the country into dictatorship. After its fall in 2001, the decline of parties, endemic corruption, and crises have been a constant.

However, for years Peru seemed to show that democracy could survive without parties and that stability and economic growth could be sustained despite recurrent political crises and corruption scandals. Sustained growth and macroeconomic stability functioned as partial substitutes for political legitimacy. The current panorama is different and indicates that democratic erosion can occur without the need for a personalist leadership that massively concentrates support and that — attention to those who embrace change without evaluating the consequences — everything can get worse.

Not only, but to a great extent, this is a legacy of the Fujimori decade (1989–2001). The series of political reforms initiated in that period generated a dynamic of institutional weakening and perverse incentives that entrenched systemic corruption (I did studied the case of Recall referendums: a political weapon for bad losers or an instrument of accountability?). Fujimori built an order that had broken down at the end of the 1980s, both politically (because of the rise of the guerrilla) and economically. However, he also produced institutional destruction, with a first major blow through the 1993 constitution, approved after his self-coup. Anti-fujimorismo since then has failed either to rebuild parties, and the precarious stability is based on horse-trading among particular interests.

Keiko’s moment?

The crisis of institutions is not an abstraction. As political scientist Paula Muñoz has pointed out, the country is going through a loss of technical capacity: “the foundations of responsible economic management are being destroyed, with high costs for once very prestigious institutions that had the power to veto populist public spending initiatives, such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance. If in congressional committees one already hears visions as mistaken as they are dangerous about what a Central Bank should do, how much time does it have left as an autonomous body?”

What comes next? The latest polls project a narrow lead for Keiko over Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú). She obtained 17% of the votes in the first round and he, 12%. The count was one of the longest and most accident-ridden (after the Venezuelan one in 2024). The official proclamation took 35 days and the dispute for second place occurred vote by vote, since two other candidacies differed by tenths of a point.

Keiko Fujimori represents at the same time continuity and mutation of fujimorismo. She preserves a hard core of support associated with order, economic stability, and rejection of the left, but she no longer manages to build majorities. Her electoral resilience reflects less her own strength than the incapacity of the Peruvian political system to produce stable leaderships and competitive organizations. Despite the scant total support for the two candidacies (together they do not add up to 30% of the votes), the country reaches the runoff highly polarized and divided. Keiko concentrates her greatest strength in Metropolitan Lima and in the northern regions of the country. Roberto Sánchez capitalizes part of the rural and anti-establishment electorate that previously supported Pedro Castillo; he is backed by rural Peru and the sectors of the center and south of the national territory.

As the main indexes that measure democratic freedoms at the international level — Freedom House, V-Dem, and The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) — have shown, Peru is no longer properly a democracy but rather a hybrid authoritarian regime. The question is whether the results can change anything in this drift or whether the cards have already been dealt.

Keiko Fujimori remains competitive not only because of the weight of the surname, but because the Peru that produced fujimorismo still has not found a way out of it. A warning against expecting too much from one man or one woman.

A Spanish version of this piece was published in https://diarioelargentino.com/sociedad/keiko-y-el-doble-legado-de-fujimori.htm

Notes from My Travels with Matteo (or On the Market for Collapse)

This is a commentary on a type of book that manages to attract global attention. The Age of Predators, by Giuliano da Empoli, perfectly embodies what could be defined as an ailment of our time: the attraction and popularity of simple, quasi-definitive and suffocating explanations. The effect is profound because it derails postmodernity.The grand narrative of modernity returns, but now as a nightmare dominated by the narrative of collapse. My argument is that the success of The Age of Predators is explained not by its content but by the kind of framework it offers and the cultural demand to which it responds (if you feel addressed, reader, give me the opportunity to explain myself).

Published in French in 2025, L’heure des prédateurs immediately became a bestseller translated into English, Italian and Spanish, among other languages. The book belongs to a series of texts explaining the decline of democracy, such as How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, or The People vs. Democracy by Yasha Mounk. But these two works, unlike da Empoli’s, develop hypotheses and provide consistent data and arguments.

How Democracies Die centers its explanation on the emergence of extremist leaders (they always existed, the authors argue, and that is a fact) and on the political elite’s capacity to prevent them from reaching power. It would be the elite’s abdication what explains the proliferation of leaderships such as those of Donald Trump or Viktor Orbán, which lead democracies to death (though, well, this does not always happen as shown by recent development ins Hungary).

In The People vs. Democracy, Mounk offers a reading less focused on the virtues of elites and instead addresses a systemic dimension: the ever-growing physical and social distance between representatives and represented, and the proliferation of institutions that have progressively reduced the space for democratic decision-making (to a large extent the multilateral system, but also domestic agencies). These are the foundations upon which populist leaderships emerge (here and here are my reviews). Unlike these works, da Empoli offers evocative scenes without an argumentative structure.

The Age of Predators shifts toward what could be defined as strategic cynicism: the crisis is not the result of institutional erosion but of an extractive logic of power—opportunistic, flexible and devoid of values. Well, at least that is what the title and some lines from the introduction suggest, focusing on predators and positioning the narrator as an Aztec scribe recording the collapse of the Empire upon the arrival of the Spaniards. But is that really what the book offers?

Let us take it step by step. The Wizard of the Kremlin, the author’s previous work, is a novel, although the interest it sparked was associated with reading it through a realist and contemporary lens, since the protagonist is a former Kremlin adviser who recounts from retirement the instrumental use of data and emotions to gain and sustain a power defined by its opacity. The Engineers of Chaos, meanwhile, is an essay that, through the selection of real-life figures (among them Gianroberto Casaleggio, Steve Bannon and Dominic Cummings—the masterminds behind the rise of Beppe Grillo and Donald Trump and the Brexit campaign, respectively), describes operations through which strategists allegedly reinvented propaganda to adapt it to the era of social media and selfies and multiply chaos.

Locating the author provides clues. Da Empoli made an incursion into politics as an adviser to Matteo Renzi (mayor of Florence between 2009 and 2014 and Prime Minister of Italy between 2014 and 2016) and later directed the Volta think tank. The Age of Predators could have been titled Notes from My Travels with Matteo Renzi or Impressions from My Life as an International Consultant. That would have done greater justice to the book, but it would surely have sold much less. The shell of the work is provided by the title and its two blocks: the Borgesian predator, centered on leaders and political actors operating without rules (yesterday and today—nothing new, as Levitsky and Ziblatt already pointed out), and the conquerors or tech entrepreneurs, who impose their own rules outright. But beneath the shell, the essays resemble the texts of a literary writer inspired by notes on events that made a particular impression on him and which he associates freely and creatively, much more than through any solid or consistent argumentation.

The reading is enjoyable, all things considered. The chapters move from one territory to another (two chapters for New York, September 2024; Washington, Montreal, Riyadh, Lieusant and Berlin also have chapters set in 2024; Florence 2012; Paris 1931; Chicago 2017; Rome 1998; Lisbon 2023). The order of presentation is neither chronological nor thematic, and the book does not develop hypotheses but rather chains together intuitions, clever quotations and anecdotes that suggest depth without constructing it. Each chapter is a chronicle of an event or, in some cases, a recreation of a historical episode (Riyadh, Paris). The multilateral meetings attended by the author are described with a certain sharpness focused on details. He identifies, for example, the three kinds of profiles that usually attend: leaders, advisers and bodyguards, and from there describes the UN as a bodily affair, a dance of distances among leaders and threatening frictions among bodyguards. The advisers (the narrator and some colleague) yawn and analyze what they see through the interpretive frameworks of some political TV series.

The arguments align with elements highly present in the global conversation—ridiculizing some absurdly tinged statement by Kamala Harris to describe wokism; condensing key quotations from emblematic figures of the age: “raise the temperature so people become thirsty” as a metaphor to “unmask” the new commercial strategies of Coca-Cola sellers; the failed “I only see what I believe,” a slip by the French far-right leader Zemmour; and offering examples from present and past, such as the chapter Paris 1931, where Curzio Malaparte, exiled by Mussolini after having been his right-hand man for two decades, recounts the Russian Revolution of October 1917 as an example of the first revolution based on technology. The result is a collection of short stories written by a sharp and cultivated person. What the book offers is a fragmented narrative, without strong causality and more concerned with vignettes than with substantiating its argument. It is entertaining (nothing more).

But then, why does a book like this become a bestseller so quickly? Because it promises to “capture the death rattles of a world plunging into the abyss” (quote from the introduction), in which “Everything will be swept away in one stroke” (Berlin 2024). I keep thinking about the convergence between highly effective market strategies (to a large extent the very ones the author himself describes) and a need of the age to find redemption, a messianic and quasi-religious demand for expiation: as if the subliminal message were something like “because nothing can be done, it is not our fault, keep watching.” This is not a book about predatory power, but a cultural product perfectly adapted to an era that adores narratives of collapse with villains and without responsibility. What the political community needs is something else.

  • published originally in Spanish in La Crítica del Derecho [LINK]

¿Por qué gana el populismo?

Sobre los límites de los minipúblicos y el necesario regreso de la acción política colectiva

En los últimos años, las asambleas ciudadanas y los llamados minipúblicos deliberativos se han expandido desde el Occidente más rico hacia otras partes del mundo como una de las respuestas más celebradas a la crisis de la democracia. Gobiernos, organismos internacionales y buena parte de la teoría democrática los presentan como espacios capaces de mejorar la calidad de la deliberación, incluir voces diversas y reconstruir la legitimidad de las instituciones. Sin embargo, mientras estas innovaciones democráticas se multiplican, quienes realmente logran movilizar a amplios sectores sociales y conquistar el poder político son, con frecuencia, los populismos.

¿Por qué ocurre esto? ¿Por qué las asambleas ciudadanas generan entusiasmo académico e institucional, pero rara vez consiguen convertirse en actores políticamente relevantes? ¿Y por qué los populismos, incluso cuando erosionan la democracia liberal, logran conectar emocionalmente con millones de personas?

Mi nuevo artículo, Why Populism Wins? Collective Political Agency and the Limits of Deliberative Mini-Publics (Representation, 2026), propone una respuesta incómoda: gran parte del debate sobre la crisis de la representación está mal diagnosticado. El problema no es sólo –ni principalmente– la falta de participación o de buenos procedimientos deliberativos. El problema más profundo es la erosión de la capacidad de acción política colectiva.

Los minipúblicos parten de una idea motriz: si ciudadanos seleccionados al azar deliberan en condiciones informadas e inclusivas, podrán producir decisiones más legítimas y razonables. Pero, en la práctica, suelen funcionar como ejercicios tecnocráticos, altamente dependientes de expertos, facilitadores y de la voluntad de las élites políticas para implementar sus recomendaciones. Aunque pueden generar deliberaciones de alta calidad, rara vez producen organización, movilización o poder político sostenido.

El artículo analiza tres límites estructurales de estas experiencias: la legitimidad, la influencia y la escalabilidad. Las asambleas ciudadanas representan descriptivamente a la sociedad, pero no construyen un sujeto político colectivo. Sus recomendaciones suelen ser consultivas y fácilmente ignoradas. Y, además, permanecen desconectadas de públicos más amplios: deliberan pequeños grupos mientras la mayoría observa –en el mejor de los casos– desde afuera.

En contraste, el populismo sí construye agencia política. Retomando la obra de Ernesto Laclau, el artículo muestra cómo los populismos logran articular demandas dispersas en una narrativa común: “el pueblo” frente a “la élite”. Allí donde los minipúblicos buscan mejorar procedimientos, el populismo moviliza emociones, identidades y antagonismos. No ofrece necesariamente mejores soluciones, pero sí produce algo que los minipúblicos rara vez consiguen: la sensación de pertenecer a un proyecto colectivo capaz de transformar la realidad.

El argumento no es una defensa del populismo. De hecho, el artículo muestra cómo, una vez en el poder, muchos populismos erosionan el pluralismo y las instituciones democráticas. Pero sí plantea que las democracias liberales no podrán renovarse únicamente mediante mejores diseños institucionales. La deliberación, por sí sola, no reemplaza la política; es más, cuando la política es negada o minusvalorada, el impacto de estas innovaciones permanece muy limitado.

La conclusión es que la reconstrucción democrática exige recuperar, repensar y fortalecer formas de organización capaces de agregar demandas, movilizar ciudadanía y ejercer poder político de manera pluralista. Y eso vuelve a colocar en el centro una institución incómoda pero insustituible: los partidos políticos. Reformarlos y reconectarlos con la sociedad puede ser menos atractivo que imaginar asambleas ciudadanas permanentes, pero probablemente sea mucho más decisivo para el futuro de la democracia.

Welp, Y. (2026). Why Populism Wins? Collective Political Agency and he Limits of Deliberative Mini-Publics. Representation, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2026.2669114